Washington bettors have been through the desert on a team with no name, but can a new moniker and new quarterback in Carson Wentz make the Washington Commanders contenders — or at least better than a 7-9-1 against the spread?
With D.C. entering Year 3 under coach Ron Rivera, the sports betting industry seems a little lost on the Commanders. The team’s win total ranges as much as a full game from book-to-book and the lookahead lines add up to anywhere from 6.5 wins to as many as eight.
The sins of the front office set the bar pretty low in the nation’s capital, which could actually open up NFL betting value. We find out where in our Washington Commanders 2022 betting preview.
Washington Commanders futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +8,000 |
| To win conference | +4,000 |
| To win division | +495 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 8.5 (Under -170) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +190 / No -220 |
Best futures bet: Under 8.5 wins (-170)
Oddsmakers don’t know what to make of the Commanders in 2022, as evidenced by their contrasting win totals across the market. Washington opened with a win total of 8.0 (Over -110) which is still out there as of this writing (DraftKings) while other shops (PointsBet) are lower at 7.5 (Under -130).
Then we come to FanDuel, which is dealing D.C.’s win total at 8.5 (Under -170). It’s an expensive buy for the Under but considering you’re paying about 30-40 cents more to get as much as an extra win on a team that really has no business winning nine games, it may be worth the wager if you ante up.
The 2022 lookahead spreads have moved away from Washington in many of its games, leaving the Commanders to go from a collective total of eight wins (six games as faves with four pick’ems) to just 6.5 — again depending on where you bet.
Washington Commanders betting overview
What will win bets: Defensive line
This D-line is loaded with first-round studs and plenty of potential, with its success trickling down through a defense that got this franchise to the playoffs two years ago. But it begins and ends in the trenches. The 2021 “Football Team” was one of the worst teams at defending the pass —– most notably on third downs — after ranking out No. 2 in pass defense DVOA in 2020.
With Chase Young hopefully back sooner than later (could miss first four weeks while recovering from ACL) and Montez Sweat staying healthy as well, this front four (and sometimes five) can generate quarterback pressure without bringing the blitz. That helps pad a thin linebacker corps and protect a flimsy secondary.
What will lose bets: Carson Wentz
Wentz’s second tour in the NFC East comes with question marks, like, “why would Washington trade for the mistake-prone QB in the first place?” The Football Team won seven games in 2021 despite losing veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 1 and having to audible to Taylor Heinicke.
Carson Wentz has a higher ceiling than those guys. However, his basement floor is bomb-shelter low. Durability is a detriment and his decision making in the crunch is downright befuddling. He threw three of his seven total interceptions in the final 15 minutes and owned a passer rating of 89.4 in fourth quarters — when bettors need him most.
Wentz has a few weapons in D.C., like home run-hitting WR Terry McLaurin, and a sound offensive line, but isn’t as protected as he was in Indianapolis. The Colts had a better o-line and run game, passed the ball just 52.57% of the time and really only needed Wentz not to f-ck up royally when he did drop back. Unfortunately…
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Washington Commanders game-by-game odds
After throwing Washington a curveball in 2021, the schedule overlords have fitted the newly-dubbed Commanders with one of the easiest slates for the upcoming NFL season.
On top of that, Washington ranks out with the second lowest rating in my QB SOS — so Wentz isn’t completely outmatched by his QB counterparts. If the defensive line can disrupt those rival passers, the Commanders will be a sneaky good against the spread team until the market catches up.
As mentioned above, Washington’s lookahead lines are different book-to-book and those spread projections range from six and a half wins to as many as eight when you split the difference on pick’em games. Three of those games as favorites come in the opening six weeks — a stretch that has plagued the team under Rivera. Washington is just 3-9 straight up and 4-8 ATS from Week 1 to Week 6 the past two seasons.
| 1 | vs. Jacksonville | -3.5 | 44 |
| 2 | @ Detroit | -1 | 46.5 |
| 3 | vs. Philadelphia | +1 | 46.5 |
| 4 | @ Dallas | +6.5 | 48 |
| 5 | vs. Tennessee | +1 | 46.5 |
| 6 | @ Chicago | -2.5 | 41.5 |
| 7 | vs. Green Bay | +4 | 47.5 |
| 8 | @ Indianapolis | +5.5 | 45.5 |
| 9 | vs. Minnesota | +1.5 | 46.5 |
| 10 | @ Philadelphia | +4 | 44.5 |
| 11 | @ Houston | -3 | 44 |
| 12 | vs. Atlanta | -5 | 45 |
| 13 | @ N.Y. Giants | PK | 43 |
| 14 | BYE | ||
| 15 | vs. N.Y. Giants | -4 | 43 |
| 16 | @ San Francisco | +7.5 | 42.5 |
| 17 | vs. Cleveland | OTB | OTB |
| 18 | vs. Dallas | +2.5 | 44 |
Washington Commanders pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
The quotes from Indy about the Wentz era are concerning for Washington. Frank Reich was his biggest supporter, and now even he’s given up on the former second-overall pick. I don’t have high hopes for him in a toxic Washington franchise.
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